Analysis
Standalone analyses of bigger questions about Icelandic tourism — done with econometric models and published here with an interpretation.
How much of the traffic is tourists?
About one eighth of the traffic follows foreign visitors, but it depends on the road: from 1% in Ártúnsbrekka to three quarters and more east of Vík.
What will the new levies do to tourism?
The tax changes in the 2027 budget bill raise the average visitor's costs by 2.1% and could reduce foreign visitors by 1.2% in the long run. Net government revenue would be about ISK 9.2bn a year.
Is seasonality changing?
The summer share went from 48.6% in 1997 to 32.6% in 2019 but has stood still since. The growth outside summer came in September and October, not in winter.
Norway's growing popularity and Icelandic tourism
Norway is not drawing visitors who would otherwise have come to Iceland. Both countries benefit from a growing interest in Nordic nature.
Oil price shocks and visitor numbers
A 10% rise in the oil price reduces foreign visitors by 0.7–0.8% after six months. The effect is temporary and gone within a year.